Bill Gates: AI will be either the greatest equaliser or the worst injustice
Bill Gates has so far described himself as an AI optimist with reservations. That description no longer holds. In an essay on his website on 26 August he writes that the transition to the AI era will be one of the most turbulent periods in human history — and that we aren't preparing for it.
His recurring phrase: AI will be either the greatest equaliser ever invented, or the worst source of injustice. Which one is decided by the choices being made now.
Why he thinks it's different this time
Previous technological leaps moved people from one kind of work to another, but the new work still relied on human thinking. AI can replace the thinking itself. And where the PC took twenty years to change working life — software had to be written, prices had to fall, people had to learn the tools — AI runs on the devices people already have and is operated in plain language. We don't have to adapt to it. It adapts to us.
Three worries
Lasting job losses. Especially at the lower and middle end, while the new positions require skills that take years to acquire. Gates points to research from Stanford that finds falling employment among young people in the most exposed occupations — but not among their older colleagues. He expects robots to spread the disruption to physical work before the end of the decade.
Stronger villains. Information about weapons and malicious code has been on the internet for years, but AI makes it far easier both to find it and to act on it. The best security people he knows are afraid of the next few years, because attackers gain new capabilities faster than defenders can close the gaps.
Children and human relationships. AI companions are always available, never get angry and never push anyone out of their comfort zone. Gates writes that he probably wouldn't have done the hard work of learning social skills as a child if such a companion had been there. He also notes that heavier AI use is associated in studies with less critical thinking — at the worst possible time, amid deepfakes and tailored misinformation.
Three proposals
- New institutions, national and international. No current authority is built for something that simultaneously touches employment, education, tax, energy, elections, health, the financial system and defence. He compares it to the reorganisation the US undertook after 11 September — which concerned just one function.
- "Human Reserved" — work reserved for people. Roles we as a society decide not to automate, even when the machines can. He draws the example from his father's final years with Alzheimer's, when the carers understood him even when he couldn't say what he needed. The name is chosen with nature reserves in mind: places where you could build, but choose not to.
- Tax AI and robots. An employer pays tax on an employee's wages, while a robot can be written off as an operating expense. The system therefore pushes towards replacing people. A levy would slow that a little and raise money for retraining and a stronger safety net. Gates proposed the same in 2017 and was met with bemusement at the time.
He isn't a pessimist
The essay gives just as much space to the gains: faster research into disease and clean energy, advice for farmers in poor countries, help getting through government paperwork, and teachers who get time for the individual pupil. The point is that none of it happens by itself — and that it shouldn't be the AI companies deciding it. That belongs in a democratic process.